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Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
December Week 1 AoI: Northeast of Puerto Rico I know, I know, it's December, the season is over and nothing is forming, but still. The convection that has been persisting around 50W has finally developed a surface low of 1010 mbar. While nothing will probably form, there is still a possibility of subtropical development. Interesting? |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 22:23, 1 December 2007 (UTC) :You mean that low northeast of the Leeward Islands? Yeah, I noticed that, too. The surface analysis says it's being "absorbed". Who's absorbing who? There's a larger extratropical system and then there's that smaller thing that appears to be putting some good distance between itself and the ET looking thing. The color IR (or the visible for that matter) doesn't look all that impressive. But the b/w IR included in the discussion gets my attention and reminds me of someone named Peter. This is a recent formation, however, and will need to sustain itself for a little bit for me to get all that excited. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 08:38, 2 December 2007 (UTC) ::Convection consolidating according to the TWD. We'll see. That'd be something, a pre-season and a post season storm. That hasn't happened in... well, four years, but still it would be cool. 'Cyclone1(14:06 UTC -2/12/2007) :::No mention in the TWD that I see. The surface analysis says the low is dissipating and the convection doesn't look as strong as last night. The door may be closing. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:30, 2 December 2007 (UTC) Week Two 17L.Olga AoI: East of the Antilles Yeah, another persistent area of convection in the Central Atlantic, but unlike last week's, this one has model support. Both the NOGAPS and CMC sent this thing through the Caribbean as a Tropical Storm. If this did happen, it would be only the second December Caribbean storm on record, after Odette in 2003. Shear is decreasing slightly, and is currently around 20 knots. SST's are about 27 degrees. It could happen. |C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 20:19, 8 December 2007 (UTC) :For the record, the offseason traditionally doesn't cause this much excitement. That patch of ocean northeast of the Leeward Islands has been quite agitated of late. Wind shear has decreased over 20 knots in the area just ahead of this system, which appears to be associated with a stationary front to the north. I reserve judgement at this point because a) there's no low pressure area associated with it and b) because it's December 8. Just like the previous system, it needs to sustain itself for at least 24 hours before I can get excited. The last system, mind you, could not. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:24, 8 December 2007 (UTC) ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 24N54W 15N57W 5N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE TROUGH WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. This storm now officially has my attention. Of course, now there a long stripe of missing sat imagery passing right over the storm and nowhere else. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:02, 9 December 2007 (UTC) 94L.INVEST It is now up on the NRL! This is a surprise! I'd never would have thought a storm could form ... SargeAbernathy 21:30, 9 December 2007 (UTC) :Okay, so technically it's not a storm yet. I know, I know. I realize that. Hey, this is still a surprise though. SargeAbernathy 21:32, 9 December 2007 (UTC) ::Yeah it surprised me. I've been tracking this system or a while, but still, surprising. ''Cyclone1(21:36 UTC -9/12/2007) :::Also, it's winds are Tropical Storm force, so if it does develop a closed circulation, it will be Subtropical Storm Olga. 2007 and 2001 are like twins, no? |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 21:50, 9 December 2007 (UTC) ::::Well, damn it. Trust the season to stop being over when you least expect it. Stupid season.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:27, 9 December 2007 (UTC) :::::2003 and 2007, I meant. But 2001 too, I suppose. Anyway, Dvorak is now classifying 94L as tropical. I can see why: Convection around the proposed center, warm core. So, Tropical Storm Olga perhaps? 71.7.210.87 00:54, 10 December 2007 (UTC) ::::::WOW i onyl found out about this storm when i was nosing around at nasas website - its well annoying though as i was just thinking about going to bed but now i am really excited as the NHC have put up a tropical disturbance statement. Jason Rees 02:36, 10 December 2007 (UTC) The 2007 AHS ended (theoretically) two weeks ago. Apparently, nature didn't get the memo. I'm still wary of this thing because it still doesn't have a low pressure center, but with NHC saying it has the potential to develop in 24 hours, it definately has my attention. Cainer, at least 2001's Olga developed in the season (although this one has yet to earn the moniker). You gotta love the tropics. Even if this one's a dud, it makes two invests already this December. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 04:16, 10 December 2007 (UTC) : It's not on NRL right now. What happened with it? Titoxd(?!?) 05:34, 10 December 2007 (UTC) ::Aww man, looks like this one is going to fall just short. It just got a closed circulation, but wind shear is increasing. I'd be surprised if it gets a name now. Damn, it came so close. Shoulda gotten a closed circulation sooner, then we might've had something. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:26, 10 December 2007 (UTC) :::To clarify, I said it's unlikely to get a name. It could become a tropical depression and indeed looks like one now, but I don't think it'll be Olga. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:24, 10 December 2007 (UTC) 17L.Olga SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA. A FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 10 PM EST...0300 UTC. Who would've thought? |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 01:51, 11 December 2007 (UTC) :Gotta love the tropics. It defies explanation or definition. I just put up my Christmas decorations for crying out loud and we're talking about a named system in the North Atlantic. It's crazy. I can just see the people in the Domincan Republic now going, "What the flaming f*** is this?" It's like a Shakesperian comedy. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:55, 11 December 2007 (UTC) ::Decreasing strength. Will it be a tropical storm? Probably a silly question but is it possible to reduce to depression strength then make tropical transition. If possible, what would happen to the name? 81.86.39.6 13:06, 11 December 2007 (UTC) :::Wow, it's snowing outside and I'm able to return here to talk about an out-of-season storm in the Atlantic! In regards to the above question, it'll still remain Olga. It has its name, it doesn't change. The storm is predicted to become a TD soon, so I don't think there's going to be much in terms of development (then again, this IS the Atlantic, anything could happen). It's also predicted to go right through Jamaica as a Tropical Depression. It may not be that strong, but their still repairing after Dean earlier this year, this may hinder or worsen some efforts. - Enzo Aquarius 15:25, 11 December 2007 (UTC) ::::Snowing! Where are you? It's in the 70s here in Atlanta. Olga is now stronger than it's ever been. I hope the rains don't screw up Hispaniola too bad. There situation is bad enough over there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:27, 11 December 2007 (UTC) :::::YES!!! After a month or more of trying, I can finally log on! Well, it's still slow, it took me five minutes for this page to load and for me to log on. Well, guess what, both off-season storms are female! Too bad I wasn't here for Sidr, Gonu, and all the others. Ah well, it's snowing here too, in S. Ontario. BIG snowstorm, 17 people died in the United States from this. Oh, and TEB, I responded to your question about the 2007 AHS thingy. Hope I stay logged on. Well, NHC dissipates it. Well, I'm not sure if it will be enough for a snow day, but who knows. Unless it turns north or misses the mountains, it's done for. Could still be trouble for the Caribbean though. Remember Dean and Felix? Well, bye for now. 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:11, 11 December 2007 (UTC) Retirements At A Glance It's currently peak season for the Atlantic and we've had storms from Andrea to Ingrid. My question is simple: What names do you think may stand a chance of retirement thus far? My speculation and chances are: *Andrea: 5%. May storm. Minimal damage, but indirectly responsible for 6 deaths. *Barry: 2%. Little damage and killed fewer than Andrea, although one death was direct. *Chantal: 5%. Almost completely forgettable while tropical. *Dean: 95%. Smashed Jamaica and killed 40+ total. *Erin: 20%. Added to already major flooding problem. 18 total deaths, half direct. Klaus-like. *Felix: 90%. Over 100 deaths in Nicaragua. Severe damage likely. *Gabrielle: 5%. Forgettable. *Humberto: 30%. Only one death, but going by USD values at the time of the hurricane, surpassed Diane and Lili in terms of damage, and both of these were retired. Outside shot at retirement. *Ingrid: 0%. Want to talk about your duds? *Jerry: 0%. Bigger dud than Ingrid, but odd location of formation. *Karen: 0%. Meh...not the most eventful storm, but was very familiar (Irene). *Lorenzo: 10%. Normally, I'd say 20%, but given Mexico's track record... *Melissa: 0%. Battered some fish...and that's about it. *Noel: 85%. More lethal than Felix. Also, on a side note, my own opinion on this one is "What the heck happened here?!?" So overall, I think the retirements for this year will definently include Dean and Felix. Erin may also get retired if the monetary damages from it are high enough when released and Humberto may get retired if the current estimates are correct. Any other ideas or opinions? Jake52 My island 02:08, 15 September 2007 (UTC) : I say Dean and Felix will definitely get the boot. Anything else thus far is extremely doubtful to no retirement period. - Enzo Aquarius 04:32, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::I say Dean 75% (there have been much, much worse) and Felix 70% (same reason). Humberto 15%, Erin 9%, the others I don't see getting retired in a million years. If you want, I will say that these a wee bit conservative, and I do hope that Felix is retired, Dean maybe (since those were the nicest SOB storms I've ever followed in this basin, maybe scratch Wilma). All four of these could be conceivably retired, but I put the chances of all four at around zero. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]]Talk 11:35, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :::I think Felix has a better chance of getting retired than Dean. To be clear, I think both should be retired, but Felix is Nicaragua's worst hurricane since Joan in 1988. I rank deaths higher than damage because deaths have a greater psycological impact than damage. Retirement is based on the impact it had on a society as a whole. I believe that storms with high death tolls have a greater impact on a culture than those with just high damage. This is why the non-retirement of Hurricane Gordon infuriated me to a greater extent than most people. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Just like Megadeth trying to get over Jethro Tull winning the "Heavy Metal" Grammy over them, eh? Anyway, being Cat 5 does not guarantee a retirement (see Emily; the Cleo that got the name retired was not a Cat 5 but a Cat 4 that did some damage afterward). Felix ''will be retired, and right now I'd say that Humberto is slightly more likely to be retired than Dean (if Jamaica doesn't nominate Dean for retirement, see it in 2013!). 147.70.236.93 21:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC) I never consider deaths particularly important unless they total above 300. In the case of storms like Mitch, non-retirement is not an issue, on the other hand, storms like Wilma are also guaranteed to be retired. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 21:23, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :About Jamaica and Dean's chances, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Jamaica and not Mexico that got Gilbert canned? What I find stunning is that this season seems like a mock-up 1988 when it comes to the likely candidates for retirement. Dean was a Gilbert imitator (though not as powerful) and Felix resembled Joan (though so far not as deadly, but more powerful, plus Joan survived Central America). Jake52 My island 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC) ::I'd say Felix will be retired. It killed over 100 people. Dean I'd say there's about a 75% chance. I think the only other storm that really has a chance to be retired is Erin, but that's not likely. What did Humberto do to get retired? I don't see it. Bob rulz 22:46, 15 September 2007 (UTC) :::Gilbert killed over 300 people in Mexico, I think that kinda sealed that deal Jamaica just was a little icing on the cake. The WMO started using drugs in the early 1990's. They retired Klaus, which killed four people and then they didn't retire Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 which killed 122 people in Venezuela, nor did they retire Gert, which killed 70-90 in Mexico. Then the whole Gordon thing in 1994 which is inexcusable. Gordon was nothing short of an outrage. Period. Other than those, the only other blatent non-retirement I can think of was 1955's Hilda. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:46, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::::You always talk about Gordon dontchya? That was kind of a large blunder on their part. I think it has to do with being a very weak storm at that stage. It's almost like Jeanne (although she was retired). I hold my estimates, though, and plus or minus ten is applicable to Dean and Felix. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:59, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Yeah, I lost a significant amount of respect for the WMO after I heard about Gordon and you bring up a good point about the intensity. I think Bret wasn't retired for the same reason. I think it took the Allison disaster to make the WMO realize that a tropical storm could actually do significant damage and that it wasn't just negligence. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:55, 16 September 2007 (UTC) We're lucky something like that hasn't happened again. There might actually be a third hit around there; a lot of models are predicting something to go through there. This is a really sucky year weather-wise. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:10, 16 September 2007 (UTC) :Third hit where? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC) ::You guys are wrong about Chantal, BTW IMO. It caused around 5 million dollars in damage in the area around Placentia Bay. Its residents are still angry the government didn't do enough. So it's not entirely forgettable. Thus, I give it a 3% chance. 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:00, 17 September 2007 (UTC) :::"Storm does less damage than Bill Gates does annually! Global crisis at hand!" WMO does NOT have enough money for all that crack. Third hit Texas. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 00:28, 17 September 2007 (UTC) Keep in mind that the WMO can't retire a hurricane if no affected country nominate it for retirement, IIRC. I believe I heard Mexico was pretty poor on nominating...--132.211.210.107 23:07, 18 September 2007 (UTC) :Gert in 1993 was not nominated. Not sure about Bret. Gordon ''was nominated. Hurricane Klaus was nominated not by the U.S, but by Guadalupe. There was supposedly some damage to historic structures there but I don't really know the reasoning behind its nomination. Several Pacific retirements are a mystery too (Knut, Iva, Fefa, Fico). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:50, 18 September 2007 (UTC) ::Here's my stats: ::Andrea:5% or lower - The storm did nothing much, just a couple fatalitites and .77 inches of rain. ::Barry:5% or lower -Unless a report comes out of substantial damage, I'd put a no on this one. ::Chantal:12.5%- 5.5 million in NFL is not much, although its got a say in what it wants to do with the name. ::Dean: 95-100%- Couple billion in damage, over 40 deaths, pretty much a retired name. ::Erin: 15% - When and if the TCR comes out, the damage total could be substantial enough for retirement. We'll have to wait however. ::Felix: 90-95%- Damage report will come out at some point, also 130+ deaths. ::Gabrielle: 5% or lower - Pretty much the same as Andrea. ::Humberto: 15-20% - If that 900 million was correct, we could've had a retirement here. Let's wait for the TCR. ::Ingrid: 0% - First fishspinner of the season, Not a chance. ::Jerry: 0% - Second fishspinner of the season, Not a chance. ::Karen: Unknown - Hasn't affected land yet, and very weak ::Lorenzo: Unknown - Wait till damage reports come out. So far that's my stats.Mitchazenia 20:55, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :::Well, here's my prediction. :::Andrea: 6%. Off-season storm, killed 6 people, attained hurricane-force winds prior to formation, caused minimal damage, was quick to get an article. :::Barry: 4%. Killed 3 people, affected reigons of Mexico later to be hit by hurricane Dean, near-direct hit on Wiki-headquaters as tropical storm, survived shear, tropical storm force until hitting an area near Boston, major rainfall on Georgia, dumped a little rain in S Ontario. :::Chantal: 5%. Killed no one, caused nearly 6 million dollars of damage in Newfoundland, people affected by damage still angry, bridge destroyed, flooding in Newfoundland. :::Dean: 90%. Long-lasting category 5 cape verde hurricane, direct strike on Chetumal City as Category 5, caused rising oil prices and fears of strike on Texas, caused nearly $ 4 billion in dammage and killed more than 40 people. :::Erin: 22%. Major flooding in already-soaked Texas and Oklahoma, killed nearly 20 people, partially responsible for 2007 Midwest Flooding, responsible for nearly 20 more deaths and over 100 million dollars in damage, caused oil prices to rise, affected more than 10 states, tropical storm-force winds over Chicago, destryoed many cars and bridges. :::Felix: 85%. Killed over 130 people, destroyed Miskito Cays completely, broke numerous records, Mitch-like, category 5 landfall in Nicaragua, nearly strengthened to unimaginable strengths had it not gone through an ERC. :::Gabrielle: 3%. No one killed, Minimal damage, heavy rain around Carolinas, early fears of major hurricane, absorbed by strong low near Newfoundland. :::Humberto: 27%. Killed one person, quick strengthening to Category 1, near-direct hit on Houston, flooding in Texas and Louisiana, half a billion dollars in damage. :::Ingrid: 1%. Complete dud, nearly strengthened had wind shear not destroyed it, dissipating before hitting Puerto Rico, fears of a near-Floyd, no article. :::Ten: 1%. Possible remnants of Humberto, action taken by New Orleans, near strengthening to Tropical Storm, quick to get an article, tornado in Florida. :::Jerry: 1%. Complete dud, passed between Newfoundland and Azores, merged with storm near British Isles and Greenland. :::Karen: 1%. Complete dud, near strengthening to hurricane status, dissipated before hitting Puerto Rico, original fears of hurricane heading for United States. :::Lorenzo: 23%. Broke Humberto's record, hit area near that affected by Dean, 5 people killed, rain on Mexico City, quick strengthening. :::Melissa: 1%. Complete dud, near re-Vince, uncertain early trajectory, quick dissipation, tied September tropical storm record. :::Well, there you go. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:47, 3 October 2007 (UTC) :::The storms i think that will be retired are Dean Felix and Noel if the latter becomes a hurricane as NOAA will Request Retirement for all 3 Jason Rees 01:57, 1 November 2007 (UTC) You think Noel will be retired with the number of people it's killed? Bob rulz 04:51, 2 November 2007 (UTC) :118 dead? Yup. If this one isn't immortalized I'll feel very sad for the state of the human race. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:40, 3 November 2007 (UTC) ::Please... don't get what's-his-name carrying on about Gordon yet again. 66.217.49.208 15:51, 3 November 2007 (UTC) :::Heh-heh, yeah, that's a good one, ya gotta admit that much, Eric. I'd give Noel a slightly higher chance of Felix than being retired, but it all depends on the damage reports (which one has higher percentages from me, that is.) I'll revise my estimates here. *Andrea- 0% - No, no, NO. Oh, and by the way, NO. *Barry- 1% - Well, you know, KLAUS got in. But still, no. *Chantal- 2% - Five mil is not worth a retirement. *Dean- 85% - Really significant damage in Jamaica, fair amount of deaths, and somewhat significant damage elsewhere. The intensity might also bias WMO more towards the "retire" side. *Erin- 5% - Only slightly worse than Barry, but there was the Missouri incident, and Texas was in flood stage, so I'm bumping it up a little bit. *Felix- 80-95% - Depends on the damage report; small, then the minimum, high, then the maximum. I say this because of the intensity, and the number of deaths (Stan was retired even though 80 of the deaths were recognized, although the damage was fairly high). *Gabrielle- 1% - It did less damage than help, no deaths, and damage reports are so low that they have not come out yet. Plus, the whole ordeal just sucked, interesting-wise. *Humberto- 15% - Did a fair amount of damage, but not really enough to be retired. However, the fast intensification might give a bias toward retirement. *Ingrid- negative 54% - I will ''KILL anyone who nominates this storm. *Jerry- negative 22% - I will only brutally maim anyone who nominates this storm. *Karen- negative 10% - Well, you know ; ). *Lorenzo- 12% - Unless the damage report is substantial, there isn't too much about this storm to get it retired. However, my reasoning is somewhat similar to Humberto. *Melissa- 0% - I mean, come ON people. *Noel- 80% - Same reasoning as Felix, except without intensity bias. May be a low estimate if really bad damage occurs in the Maritimes. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 00:50, 4 November 2007 (UTC) :If anyone cares, I'll give my "official" percentages: *Andrea: 10% - just because it was so freaking cool *Barry: 8% - those two motorists probably didn't much care for the whole dying thing *Chantal: 5% - largely unnotable. Newfoundland got a little winded but nothing unlike the winter storms they have up there basically every year *Dean: 85% - News channels didn't tell you this but Majahual was flattened. That town may never be the same. Raised hell in Jamaica, a popular place, sometimes that can tip the scales. But the big thing was the devestation in the Mexican mountains. *Erin: 35% - those floods were devestating. 15-20 dead in the United States of America is pretty big. I hate to break it to you guys, but while there may not be an American bias, there is a high-profile-country bias (see Hurricane Klaus). On the flip side, there's an anti-tropical storm bias too. Allison had to kill 40 Americans to get the nod. Tropical Storm Bret in '93 and TS Alberto in '94 are good examples of this bias (however, the WMO seemed to have been made up entirely of meth addicts in the early 1990's. See Klaus, Gert, Gordon). *Felix: 95% - true devestation. Nicaragua is no stranger to bad storms but this one is their worst since, I believe, Hurricane Joan in 1988. If this storm isn't retired I will have a tear tattooed on my cheak and hang myself from a tree in Managua. *Gabrielle: 5% - I'm not even sure the weather on September 9 on the Outer Banks was all that bad. Gusty with scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm. *Humberto: 20% - This is probably a little generous but damn, what a storm! Humberto didn't strengthen, it exploded. It went from blue skies to a raging hurricane in 18 hours. That's amazing. *Ingrid: 1% - Do I really need to write anything here? *Jerry: 4% - This sort of non-tropical origin seems to be becoming more and more frequent. I'm sure it's global warming (tongue-in-cheek). *Karen: 4% - NHC won't upgrade it, but I'm pretty convinced that Karen was a hurricane, if briefly. It's not often a tropical storm gets an eye in the Atlantic (or anywhere, really, but especially the Atlantic). Peter in 2003 is an example, but that one's in question too. *Lorenzo: 15% - Hurricane HJ Lorenzo the First is hereby banned from the Hurricane Hall of Fame for testing positive for steroids ;) *Melissa: 0% - To mention this storm and 'retirement' in the same sentence is downright insulting to me (it is my sister's name, however, and Eric(k) was used in the Pacific, both shitty storms) *Noel: 90% - My God, what the hell happened? We all thought the season was basically over and then this beast came along. It wasn't even that strong when it hit Hispaniola. That place is such a hellhole. Reminds me of Bangladesh. You hold your breath everytime it gets hit, no matter the intensity. The DR has some 'splaining to do I do believe. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:56, 21 November 2007 (UTC) Ah, I see there's one more storm I need to do here... *Noel - 85%: Not the worst storm of the year IMO, but one of the biggest and baddest nonetheless. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 12:58, 5 December 2007 (UTC) For such a "quiet" season, we've had one hectic September! Eight named Atlantic storms so far this month, and the initial NHC advisory/discussion for TD #14 indicates the possible arrival of Melissa on Sunday (30 September). Even the infamous 2007 had only five named storms in September... Whew! 147.70.242.40 15:47, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :You mean 2005, of course. Of course, that's an excellent point, one that also applies well to a season about five years back, where the record this season will almost certainly tie was set. I predict, however, that there will be some more intense storms even after the end of September. This isn't your ordinary season, that's a pretty much universal concept. And could all you anons who post so many things get a username? It's not easy to quote "147.70.242.40"! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 19:02, 28 September 2007 (UTC) ::Some people cherish their anonymity :) 67.155.250.26 20:11, 28 September 2007 (UTC) :::Then we'll just have to give you userpages and nicknames ; ). But a good point has been made often on Wikipedia that you have more anonymity if people don't know what your IP address is. You could also do what I did. Back on topic though, I don't think this season yet qualifies as "quiet" either ; ). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 20:42, 28 September 2007 (UTC) I created my first account! [[User:HurricaneJosh|'PI']]Talk 01:43, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :Now, if only we can persuade the rest of them >: ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']]Talk 11:37, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::Quiet my ass. This season has been decidedly unquiet. We've had 13 storms and it's not quite October yet, two Category 5s and eight storms this September, which matches a record. There's been nothing quiet about this season. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:28, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :::The real reason for the claims of "quiet" is the lack of hurricanes, which can be explained by all of the tropical cyclones except two forming in high shear or close to land. Back to you, Eric. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 20:24, 30 September 2007 (UTC) ::::At this time in 2001, the Atlantic season had this exact same number of hurricanes and finished with nine. Also, I believe Karen was briefly a hurricane. It's impossible to know what October will bring. It was the most active month in 2005, with seven storms including the strongest storm ever measured in the Atlantic and three other hurricanes. Go tell the folks in Nicaragua it's been a quiet season. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 22:51, 30 September 2007 (UTC) And with the SSTs not cooling down any time soon, you probably have a good point there, Eric. Currently, wind shear is also looking good for the Caribbean, which is the breeding ground of October storms. Cape Verde is starting to cool down, which is a sign we'll probably have some typical October storms, probably a few more majors still out there, eh? This has been your 7:45 news update on the 2007 False Accusation scandal. And here's our other forecasters with their predictions. Signing off, this is Internet Protocol. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(''The Project)]] 23:48, 30 September 2007 (UTC) :And now a word from our sponsor. "Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead! Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead! Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead!" Cyclone1(23:42 UTC -1/10/2007) ::"And now, our new product! First-on, ultra welfare relief! Apply directly to the congressman!" You are so damn good at that, always getting the joke in at the perfect time. You remind me of a great humorist who doesn't actually live to far away from you OR hurricanes (read the bit in his new book about the 2004 hurricane season, it's hilarious). Anyway, October doesn't look like it'll be a pushover either with this new 90L system coming onto the scene. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 00:47, 2 October 2007 (UTC) :::Too bad most of October turned out to be pretty lame. So much for that active late season. Bob rulz 04:53, 2 November 2007 (UTC) ::::Yeah, and coupled with all the rest the season has done... No wait, never mind, it's been pretty cool, at least to my recollection. Sorry about that. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 10:41, 2 November 2007 (UTC) :::::Well, for someone who has experienced seven direct hits by hurricanes, "lame" is good... and Noel is certainly making things "interesting" for Maine and the Maritimes. 66.217.49.208 15:47, 3 November 2007 (UTC) The only reason this season has been "lame" is due to the formation of storms in the most hostile places (see above post). Other than that, this season has been extraordinarily active. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 00:53, 4 November 2007 (UTC) :And there is no location in the western hemisphere that has suffered seven DIRECT hits by hurricanes, unless you're saying that you're REALLY old. You may mean that you have gotten at least the fringes of seven storms. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']](Talk) [[User:68-100-190-56/Looking_to_the_Eye_of_the_Storm|(The Project)]] 00:54, 4 November 2007 (UTC) ::No, but if someone has moved several times in his life, it is very possible. I can claim only five direct hits myself, but then again, I've moved only nine times in my life. 66.217.33.129 03:54, 5 November 2007 (UTC) :::Oh, by the way - have you seen what happened to Avon Lake, Florida, in 2005? 66.217.33.129 03:55, 5 November 2007 (UTC) ::::Not much - but there was quite a bit happening there in 2004: Charley, Frances, and Jeanne. My brother lived there that year, then moved to Dania Beach the next year - just in time for Katrina and Wilma. He was nailed five times in fifteen months! 147.70.242.40 22:12, 5 November 2007 (UTC) I'm not even 25 and I can claim 90 direct hits. Key word is claim. But in reality, the answer is 2. PI over and out 71.7.217.94 23:20, 5 November 2007 (UTC) :You're in Canada. That's highly unlikely. 72.205.60.115 23:56, 5 November 2007 (UTC) ::Not all in the same direct hit (Avon Lake). Get your freakin' facts straight. 72.205.60.115 14:23, 6 November 2007 (UTC)